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本文构建了1987～2006年的可比价格投入产出表,并以此为基础测算了贸易对中国能源消耗和SO2排放的影响。结果表明,此期间出口含能量和出口含硫量增长迅速,且增速快于相应的进口含污量增速,同时能源和SO2的贸易条件也明显恶化。而出口含能量和出口含硫量之所以快速上升,这主要是出口规模迅速增长带来的规模效应。不过技术变动有效地抑制了上述规模效应。此外,结构效应很小,这意味着中国的出口结构变化对能耗和SO2排放的影响不大。
This paper builds the 1987-2006 comparable price input output table, and based on this measure the impact of trade on China’s energy consumption and SO2 emissions. The results show that during the period, the energy content of export and sulfur content of export increased rapidly, and the growth rate was faster than the corresponding import volume growth rate, meanwhile, the trade conditions of energy and SO2 also obviously deteriorated. The reason why the energy content of exports and the sulfur content of exports rise rapidly is mainly due to the scale effect brought by the rapid growth of export volume. However, technological changes effectively inhibit the scale effect. In addition, the structural effect is small, which means that the change of export structure in China has little effect on energy consumption and SO2 emissions.