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1970年代末以后,热带太平洋海区出现了一种类似El Nio但又与其有本质区别的现象:El Nio Modoki,与其相关的各种海洋大气异常变化给全球气候带来了独特的影响。利用HadISST海温和NCEP/NCAR风场等再分析资料以及相关、回归和合成等统计方法,分析了El Nio Modoki与当年各季的中国近海及邻近海域海表温度(SST)的关系。结果表明:(1)夏季El Nio Modoki与同年秋季中国近海及邻近海域的SST有显著的负相关关系,显著相关区域主要分布于黑潮以东的大片海域。(2)夏季El Nio Modoki发生期间,菲律宾北部至中国近海及邻近海域的上空盛行异常偏北风,且热带西太平洋表层暖水东流,这不利于热带西太平洋暖水向中纬度地区的输送。分析结果还表明,海洋环境对风场有滞后的响应以及黑潮向北输送有减弱的现象,而这可能正是夏季El Nio Modoki影响秋季中国近海及邻近海域海温偏冷的重要原因。
After the late 1970s, a phenomenon similar to but essentially similar to that of El Nio appeared in the tropical Pacific: El Nio Modoki, and the associated variations in the various marine atmospheres that have had a unique impact on the global climate . The relationship between El Nio Modoki and the sea surface temperature (SST) of China’s coastal waters and adjacent sea areas in each seasons of the current year is analyzed by means of reanalysis data such as HadISST SST and NCEP / NCAR wind fields, and correlation, regression and composition. The results showed that: (1) Summer El Nio Modoki had a significant negative correlation with SST in the coastal waters and adjacent waters of China in autumn of the same year, with significant correlations mainly distributed in a large area of sea east of the Kuroshio. (2) During the El Nio Modoki summer, the anomalous northerly wind prevails over the offshore and adjacent waters of the Philippines from the northern part of the Philippines to the east and the surface warm water flows eastward in the tropical western Pacific, which is detrimental to the warming of the tropical western Pacific to the mid-latitudes The delivery. The analysis also shows that the marine environment has a lagged response to the wind field and the northward transport of the Kuroshio has weakened, which may be the reason that El Nio Modoki affected the colder SST in the autumn of China’s coastal waters and adjacent waters in autumn .