论文部分内容阅读
基于信息熵的基本原理,改造了信息熵函数,针对系统耦合中的诸多不确定性因素,提出了一种耦合效果的定量评估方法,利用自信息量评估各节点完成预报工作的能力,选取降水数值预报信息的获取能力、降水数值预报信息的处理能力、预报系统的调用能力和系统耦合预报成果的存储与输出能力描述工作能力,并采用数理统计方法确定各节点内不确定性因素的隶属度。实例应用结果表明,该方法能定量估算由于预见期的延长对水文预报耦合成果不确定性的影响,为耦合成果的精度评定和应用提供了客观的评价。
Based on the basic principle of information entropy, the information entropy function was modified. Aiming at the many uncertain factors in the coupling of the system, a quantitative evaluation method of coupling effect was proposed. By using self information to evaluate the ability of each node to complete the forecasting work, Ability to obtain numerical forecast information, processing ability of precipitation numerical forecast information, transfer ability of forecasting system and storage and output capacity of system coupled forecasting results, and to use mathematical statistics to determine the membership degree of uncertain factors in each node . The results of practical application show that this method can quantitatively estimate the influence of the forecast period on the uncertainty of the hydrological forecasting coupling results and provide an objective evaluation for the accuracy evaluation and application of the coupling results.