Since the great 1303 Hongtong, Shanxi, earthquake of magnitude 8, 700 years have elapsed. To analyze the long-term seismic potential, this paper divides the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system into 5 seismogenic segments. Based on data of historical earthquakes and GPS observation, the authors estimate mean seismic-moment rates and average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes for the individual segments, and fur-ther analyze relative levels of current stress cumulation on the segments based on mapping b-values along the gra-ben system by using the network seismic data for the recent over 30 years. The main result shows that the Linfen basin segment has an estimated mean seismic-moment rate of 2.211016 Nm/a to 3.031016 Nm/a, and its average recurrence interval for M=7.5 earthquake is estimated to be between 1 560 and 2 140 years. For the Ling-shi-Hongtong segment, the estimated average recurrence interval for M=8 earthquakes is between 4 300 and 5 100 years, equivalent to having a mean moment-rate of 2.581016 Nm/a to 3.101016 Nm/a. The contour map of b-values shows that the two segments of Lingshi-Hongtong and Linfen basin have been being at low or relatively low stress levels, reflecting that since the 1303 M=8 and the 1695 M=7.5 earthquake ruptures, the fault-planes strengths of the both segments have not been resumed yet. And the other two segments, the Houma and the Jiexiu-Fenyang, have relatively high stress levels, and have been already identified as potential risky segments for the coming earthquakes from the analysis combining with the estimated average recurrence intervals of earth-quakes on the both segments. Since the great 1303 Hongtong, Shanxi, earthquake of magnitude 8, 700 years have elapsed. To analyze the long-term seismic potential, this paper divides the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system into 5 seismogenic segments. Based on data of historical earthquakes and GPS observations, the authors estimate mean seismic-moment rates and average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes for the individual segments, and fur-ther analyze relative levels of current stress cumulation on the segments based on mapping b-values ​​along the gra-ben system by using the network seismic data for the recent over 30 years. The main result shows that the Linfen basin segment has an estimated mean seismic-moment rate of 2.211016 Nm / a to 3.031016 Nm / a, and its average recurrence interval for M = 7.5 earthquake is estimated to be between 1 560 and 2 140 years. For the Ling-shi-Hongtong segment, the estimated average recurrence interval for M = 8 earthquakes is between 4 300 and 5 100 years, equival ent to having a mean moment-rate of 2.581016 Nm / a to 3.101016 Nm / a. The contour map of b-values ​​shows that the two segments of Lingshi-Hongtong and Linfen basin have been at low or relatively low stress levels, reflecting that since the 1303 M = 8 and the 1695 M = 7.5 earthquake ruptures, the fault-planes strengths of the both segments have not been resumed yet. And the other two segments, the Houma and the Jiexiu-Fenyang, have relatively high stress levels , and have been identified as potential risky segments for the coming earthquakes from the analysis combining with the estimated average recurrence intervals of earth-quakes on the both segments.