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考虑场地与结构参数不确定性的动力影响,是各国核电抗震规范的共同要求之一。规范中建议了2种参数不确定性的分析方法:一种是对确定性方法获得的楼层谱计算值直接进行不确定性处理;另一种是采用蒙特卡洛方法建立样本空间,对响应结果集进行概率统计分析。这2种方法均体现的是不确定性参数的综合影响,无法甄别其中某类参数的不同影响与贡献程度。为明确不同类别的不确定性参数的具体贡献,基于统计学原理,提出一套核电楼层谱分析中不确定性参数影响评价的综合指标,主要有相关性系数、回归斜率系数和Tornado摆幅等。这些指标可从不同角度,分析结构参数不确定性对楼层反应谱的影响与贡献程度,得到不同参数的敏感性影响排序。
Considering the dynamic influence of the uncertainty of the site and structure parameters, it is one of the common requirements for the seismic code of nuclear power in all countries. Two kinds of parameter uncertainty analysis methods are suggested in the specification: one is to directly deal with the uncertainty of the floor spectrum calculated by the deterministic method; the other is to establish the sample space by using the Monte Carlo method, and the response result Set probabilistic statistical analysis. Both of these two methods reflect the combined influence of uncertainty parameters and can not distinguish the different influences and contributions of certain types of parameters. In order to clarify the specific contributions of different types of uncertain parameters, a comprehensive index of the influence evaluation of uncertainty parameters in the spectral analysis of nuclear power stations based on statistical principles is proposed, mainly including correlation coefficient, regression slope coefficient and Tornado swing . These indexes can analyze the influence and contribution degree of structural parameter uncertainty on the floor response spectrum from different angles, and get the order of the sensitivity of different parameters.