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港口吞吐量是港口建设的重要依据,有效预测港口吞吐量,才能使港口在海洋运输业中发挥重要作用。灰理论预测可以在少量信息、不完全数据的情况下,揭示港口吞吐量的发展变化特征,是研究港口吞吐量的有效工具。本文对上海港货物吞吐量进行研究的结果表明,应用灰理论对港口吞吐量建立灰色模型GM(1,1)进行短期预测,其结果有较高的实用价值。
Port throughput is an important basis for port construction. Effectively forecasting port throughput can make ports play an important role in ocean shipping industry. Gray forecast can reveal the characteristics of the development and changes of port throughput with a small amount of information and incomplete data, which is an effective tool for studying port throughput. The result of the study on the cargo throughput of Shanghai Port shows that the gray forecast model GM (1,1) is established based on gray theory and the result is of high practical value.