论文部分内容阅读
·3月份,受疲弱经济数据影响,美元指数再创新低,最低至70.69。受弱势美元推动,原油、黄金价格均创出历史新高,黄金价格突破1000美元/盎司。美联储降息、注资等举措令市场信心有所恢复,受美元反弹、基金平仓的影响,原油、黄金价格自高位回落。·短期内受美联储救市政策及调降利率影响,金融市场市场信心有所恢复,加上个别好于预期的经济数据推动,我们预计美元可能还有一定反弹空间,这会对黄金构成压力。但是美元摆脱弱势格局最终仍然取决于美国经济的恢复,以及双赤字问题的解决,而这需要假以时日,目前并没有根本性的改变。·美元的短期反弹会同样会对原油价格形成压力,黄金价格也会受到影响。但是美元的长期弱势、OPEC国家限制供应、非OPEC国家产量增长放缓、新兴市场地区国家需求增长都会令原油价格在高位维持。·美元短期反弹仍然对黄金价格产生压力,但由于美国经济仍然疲弱,4月末再次降息的预期会限制其反弹幅度。长期来看,原油价格将会维持在较高水平,但季节性因素有可能使其调整幅度加大,进而对金价产生不利影响。黄金由于近期调整力度较大,投资者信心受到影响,价格可能会再次下探,但空间不大。我们认为价格趋势仍然向上,建议在市场企稳时再次买入。
· In March, affected by the weak economic data, the US dollar index hit a new low, the lowest to 70.69. Driven by the weaker dollar, crude oil and gold prices all hit record highs, with the price of gold exceeding US $ 1000 / oz. Fed interest rate cuts, capital injection and other measures to market confidence has been restored by the dollar rebound, the impact of fund liquidation, crude oil, gold prices plummeted from highs. · In the short term, under the influence of the Federal Reserve’s bailout policy and interest rate cut, market confidence in the financial markets has been restored. Coupled with some better-than-expected economic data, we expect the dollar may have some room for rebound, which will put pressure on gold. However, the final resolution of the dollar out of the weak will ultimately depend on the recovery of the U.S. economy and the solution to the problem of double deficits. This will take time and there is no fundamental change at the moment. The short-term rally in the dollar will also put pressure on the price of crude oil and the price of gold will also be affected. However, the long-term weakness of the U.S. dollar has constrained the supply of OPEC countries and the slowdown of output growth in non-OPEC countries. The increase in demand in emerging market countries will keep the price of crude oil at a high level. The short-term rally in the dollar is still putting pressure on gold prices, but expectations of another rate cut in late April will limit its rally as the U.S. economy remains weak. In the long run, the price of crude oil will remain at a high level, but seasonal factors may increase its adjustment and thus adversely affect the gold price. Due to the recent adjustment of gold bullish, investor confidence is affected, the price may once again plunge, but little space. We think the price trend is still upwards and it is suggested to buy again when the market stabilizes.