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基于广东省韶关市抽样调查样本数据,对集体林权改革后农户林业经营模式的选择行为影响因素进行分析,利用Logistic模型对农户选择行为与各个自变量进行了回归。认为农户家庭的劳动力,林地的细碎化程度,农民对集体林改的了解程度,农户林权的完备程度以及林业收入占家庭总收入的比重等因素对农户林业经营模式的选择行为具有不同程度和方向的影响。文章在对回归结果分析的基础上结合SSCP范式,对农户选择行为逻辑做了较为深入的剖析和解释,认为林业经营模式只有与资源特征与制度环境相匹配时才能实现效益的最大化和经营的可持续性。
Based on the sample data from sample survey of Shaoguan City, Guangdong Province, the influencing factors of farmers ’forest management model selection after collective forest tenure reform were analyzed. Logistic model was used to regress farmers’ selection behavior and each independent variable. Considering that the selection of farmers ’family labor, the degree of fragmentation of forest land, farmers’ understanding of collective forest reform, the completeness of forest tenure rights and the proportion of forestry income to total household income, The direction of the impact. Based on the analysis of the regression results and based on the SSCP paradigm, the article analyzes and explains the farmer households’ choosing behavior logic more deeply and concludes that the forestry management model can maximize the benefits and management only when it matches the resource characteristics and institutional environment Sustainability.