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中国省域失业率是否因为地缘互动而产生空间效应是本文的研究重点,通过建立包括空间效应变量、省域劳动力市场特征变量、经济环境变量及制度变量的失业率单等式模型,使用GLS方法对涵盖中国各省1995至2006年的面板数据进行实证分析,结果表明中国省域失业率空间效应明显存在,其强度与显著性随地域间距离增加而逐渐衰减。这提示政府在省级失业率控制工作中应将周边省份失业率情况作为决策依据纳入考虑,以预防突发的外部失业冲击。同时,区域合作或可成为失业率抑制的有效手段。
It is the key point of this paper that whether China's provincial unemployment rate is generated due to geostationary interaction or not. By establishing the single-equation model of unemployment rate including spatial effect variables, provincial labor market characteristic variables, economic environment variables and institutional variables, the GLS method The empirical analysis of the panel data covering all provinces in China from 1995 to 2006 shows that the spatial effect of the provincial unemployment rate in China obviously exists and its intensity and significance decay gradually with the increase of the distance between regions. This prompted the government in the provincial unemployment rate control should be the surrounding provinces unemployment rate as a policy basis to take into account to prevent unexpected external unemployment. At the same time, regional cooperation can be an effective measure of restraining the unemployment rate.