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出口作为一国经济增长的“三驾马车”之一,无疑会对一国经济产生重要影响。而汇率作为一种重要的经济杠杆,也是影响一个国家和地区对外贸易发展的重要因素之一。本文从实证分析的角度,对1990年以来人民币实际有效汇率水平的变动与出口贸易结构的关系进行了研究和分析。通过单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型、脉冲响应和方差分解等方法对历年年度数据进行了实证分析,发现初级产品、劳动密集型产品和资本与技术密集型产品占出口总额比重均与人民实际有效汇率和国外实际收入存在长期稳定的均衡关系,并且各类出口产品对汇率的敏感性差别较大。汇率变动会对我国出口产品结构产生影响,但从方差分解结果来看,这并不是出口贸易结构变动的主要决定因素。
Export as one of the “troikas” of a country’s economic growth will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the economy of a country. Exchange rate, as an important economic lever, is also one of the important factors that affect the development of foreign trade in a country and a region. From the perspective of empirical analysis, this paper studies and analyzes the relationship between the real exchange rate of Renminbi and the structure of export trade since 1990. Through the unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, impulse response and variance decomposition and other methods of empirical analysis of annual data over the years, found that primary products, labor-intensive products and capital-intensive products and technology accounted for the proportion of total exports with There is a long-term and stable equilibrium between the actual effective exchange rate of the people and the actual foreign income, and the sensitivity of the export products to the exchange rate varies greatly. Changes in exchange rates will have an impact on the structure of China’s export products, but from the results of variance decomposition, this is not the main determinant of the changes in the structure of export trade.