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目前已有很多研究运用CGE模型的分析方法对我国加入WTO后关税与非关税减让措施的经济影响进行评估,但往往将中国作为一般市场经济国家处理,未能考虑到目前中国经济的一些特殊结构。本文的贡献在于更现实地将我国经济中依然存在的一些非完全竞争因素,如价格控制、垄断标价等纳入模型结构。另外在政府贸易措施方面也进行了比已有研究更为详细的设定,如名义关税与实际关税、非关税壁垒、进口间接税、出口退税等等,因此具有更强的政策分析能力。通过模型分析,本文不仅对经济总量、结构和贸易规模等进行了一般预测,而且证明某些非完全竞争因素如垄断程度的减弱与非关税壁垒的尽可能的降低都会进一步提高GDP或国民福利的水平。
At present, there are many studies that use the CGE model to evaluate the economic impact of tariff and non-tariff concession measures after China’s accession to the WTO. However, China often treats China as a general market economy country and fails to take into account the special features of the current Chinese economy structure. The contribution of this paper is to more realisticly include some imperfect competition factors still existing in our economy, such as price control, monopoly price and so on into the model structure. In addition, government trade measures have been carried out in more detail than the previous research, such as nominal and actual tariffs, non-tariff barriers, indirect taxes on imports, export tax rebates and so on, and therefore have a stronger ability of policy analysis. Through the analysis of the model, this paper not only makes a general forecast of economic aggregate, structure and trade scale, but also proves that some imperfect competition factors, such as the reduction of monopoly degree and non-tariff barrier as much as possible, will further increase GDP or national welfare s level.