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本文调整了传统测算多样性指数的方法,对我国HS6位编码的进出口产品多样性进行了测度,并使用马尔可夫链模型对其发展趋势进行动态分析。研究表明,我国贸易产品波动尤其是出口产品的波动还将维持在一个较高的水平,劳动密集型产品作为我国贸易优势产品,对我国贸易进一步向竞争更为激烈的资本技术密集型产品领域扩展起到降低风险、稳定发展的作用。进口贸易也将通过调整进口产品结构,促进资本、技术等引进加快我国贸易结构的转型升级。本文的研究拟为评价我国贸易质量、制定贸易转型政策提供有效参考。
This paper adjusts the traditional method of measuring diversity index, measures the diversity of import and export products coded by HS6 in China, and uses Markov chain model to analyze its development trend dynamically. The research shows that the fluctuations of China’s trade products, especially the export products, will remain at a relatively high level. Labor-intensive products, as China’s trade advantage products, will further expand China’s trade to the more competitive capital technology-intensive products Play a risk reduction, the role of stable development. Import trade will also speed up the transformation and upgrading of China’s trade structure by adjusting the structure of imported products and promoting the introduction of capital and technology. This study is intended to provide an effective reference for the evaluation of China’s trade quality and formulation of trade transition policy.