手足口病是影响学龄前儿童的主要传染病之一,早期的预测预警可以为疫情防控措施提供重要的参考,意义重大。本文介绍了国内用于手足口病疫情预测预警的主要模型,包括动力学模型、差分自回归移动平均模型、空间统计学、灰色预测模型及其他模型,指出了主要模型的优缺点,为手足口病疫情预测预警模型的选择和发展方向提供参考依据。 Hand-foot-mouth disease is one of the main infectious diseases affecting pre-school children. Early prediction and early warning can provide important reference for epidemic prevention and control measures, which is of great significance. In this paper, the main models for forecasting HFMD epidemic in China are introduced, including dynamic model, differential autoregressive moving average model, spatial statistics, gray forecasting model and other models. The advantages and disadvantages of the main models are pointed out, Provide a reference basis for the selection and development of disease prediction and early warning model.