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针对现有社会保障支出与消费水平关系实证研究中存在的不足,本文通过将收入变量引入消费者最优理论模型并将农村与城镇经济分别加以考虑,改进并重构了社会保障支出与消费水平关系的计量模型。以该改进模型为基础,文章利用单位根检验、Granger因果关系检验、协整检验等方法更加深入地研究了城镇和农村社会保障支出与消费水平之间的关系,并得出了与国内以往实证研究不同的结论,即在长期均衡中,不论是城镇还是农村,社会保障支出均促进消费水平的提高,即挤进消费水平;其中,增加农村社会保障支出对消费的促进作用更大。这些结论为我国制定和实施社会保障支出政策提供了现实的理论依据。
In view of the existing problems in the empirical research on the relationship between the current social security expenditure and the consumption level, this paper improves and reconstructs the social security expenditure and consumption level by introducing the income variable into the consumer optimal theoretical model and considering the rural and urban economy respectively, The relationship between the measurement model. Based on this improved model, this paper uses the methods of unit root test, Granger causality test and co-integration test to study the relationship between social security expenditure and consumption level in urban and rural areas in depth. Different conclusions are drawn: in the long-run equilibrium, whether in urban or rural areas, social security expenditures all promote the improvement of consumption level, that is, into the level of consumption; among them, the increase of social security expenditure in rural areas plays a greater role in promoting consumption. These conclusions provide a realistic theoretical basis for our country to formulate and implement the social security expenditure policy.