本文以2000年艾比湖流域的水资源利用现状为基础,建立了流域水资源供需系统的动力学模型,并结合流域的人口和经济发展状况,计算预测模拟了流域未来30年的可供水量、人口、工业产值、农业产值、生活用水、工业用水、农业用水、生态环境用水等主要8个指标的变化趋势及供需水平衡分析。根据预测结果,对目前和将来用水中可能出现的问题,提出了流域水资源供需水平衡协调的对策。 Based on the current situation of water resources utilization in the Aibi Lake Basin in 2000, this paper established a dynamic model of the water supply and demand system in the basin, and combined with the population and economic development of the basin, calculated and predicted the available water volume in the next 30 years , Population, industrial output value, agricultural output value, domestic water, industrial water, agricultural water, eco-environmental water and other key indicators of the 8 trends and supply and demand balance analysis. Based on the forecast results, some countermeasures for the balance of supply and demand of water resources in the basin are put forward for possible problems in water use at present and in future.