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文章从产品产业化过程的角度出发对创意产业企业不确定性进行了分析,归纳出创意产业企业的不确定性来源。鉴于不确定性的复杂性和创意产业的实物期权特征,以及对企业价值评估模型的讨论,改进了Schwartz-Moon期权模型,对创意产业企业价值进行评估。从连续时间和离散时间两种情况出发,构建了创意产业企业预期收入与企业现金流模型,在此基础上,讨论了可变成本、产权收入和公司产品的价值损失三个变量与创意产业的企业价值的关系,并在考虑税率的情况下构建企业税后净收入模型以全面考察创意产业企业价值。
The article analyzes the uncertainty of creative industries and enterprises from the perspective of product industrialization and concludes the sources of uncertainty of creative industries and enterprises. In view of the complexity of uncertainty and the characteristics of real options in creative industries, and the discussion on the model of enterprise value evaluation, the Schwartz-Moon option model is improved to evaluate the value of creative industries. Based on the continuous time and discrete time, this paper constructs the expected revenue and corporate cash flow model of creative industries, and on this basis, discusses the three variables of variable costs, property rights revenue and the loss of value of the company’s products and creative industries The relationship between the enterprise value, and considering the case of tax rate to build a net income tax model to fully examine the value of creative industries and enterprises.