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利用中国1998~2009年的省际数据和面板协整分析法,从理论和实证两个角度分析资源开发强度与产业结构演进之间的内在关系,结果发现,虽然加大资源开发力度在短期内会促进制造业的发展,但长期却会有明显的抑制作用。而资源开发强度与第三产业发展水平之间仅存在负向的长期均衡关系。在一个较长的时间范围内,资源开发对产业结构演进的抑制作用是“资源诅咒”现象产生的重要原因。
Using the inter-provincial data and panel cointegration analysis method from 1998 to 2009 in China, this paper analyzes the internal relations between the strength of resource development and the evolution of industrial structure from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. It is found that although the intensity of resource development in the short term Will promote the development of the manufacturing industry, but it will obviously have a long-term inhibitory effect. However, there is only a negative long-term equilibrium relationship between the strength of resource development and the level of tertiary industry. In a long period of time, the inhibitory effect of resource development on the evolution of industrial structure is an important reason for the “resource curse” phenomenon.