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近几年来,印尼经济的学者(印尼的及外国的)一直在争论着世界石油价格下跌对印尼经济发展前景的影响。自六十年代后期到1981年,印尼从原油、石油产品及天然气的出口所获得的收入稳步增长,到了1981年,这些出口收入已超过200亿美元;1982年下降了20多亿美元,这一年印尼的经济增长也显著下降,其实际国内生产总值只增长2％,是1967年以来年增长率最低的一年。人们普遍担心,七十年代的高经济增长率已经一去不复返,它在八十年代更为严峻的国际环境中是不可能再维持下去了。当第四个五年建设计划(1984年4月至1989年3月)提出国内生产总值年增长率的计划指标为5％时,许多人认为这是很难实现的(尽管七十年代印尼的国内生产总值年平均增长率
In recent years, Indonesian economists (both in Indonesia and abroad) have been arguing for the impact of the drop in world oil prices on Indonesia’s economic prospects. From the late 1960s to 1981, Indonesia’s revenues from the export of crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas increased steadily. By 1981, these export revenues had exceeded 20 billion U.S. dollars and it dropped more than 2 billion U.S. dollars in 1982 In 2003, Indonesia’s economic growth also dropped significantly. Its real GDP grew by only 2%, the lowest annual growth rate since 1967. It is generally worded that the high rate of economic growth in the seventies is gone and that it can not be maintained in the more austere international environment of the 1980s. When the proposed target of an annual GDP growth rate of 5% for the fourth five-year construction plan (April 1984 to March 1989), many people find it hard to come by (although the seventies Indonesia Average annual growth rate of gross domestic product