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分析了2010-2012年我国大型地质灾害的降水案例,揭示了降雨阈值的分布特征,指出经过平均年降雨量规格化的阈值效果更好,改进后的地质灾害客观模式与主观模式的差别越来越小;通过收集和分析地质灾害成功的避让案例,揭示了对当天发生了强降水的地质灾害预警会引起较多的避险措施,而只有前期降水的预警则不会引起足够的重视;客观模型3对地质灾害避险成功的意义最大。
This paper analyzes the precipitation of large-scale geological disasters in China from 2010 to 2012, reveals the distribution characteristics of rainfall threshold, points out that the normalized average annual rainfall has a better threshold, and the difference between objective and objective models of geological disasters has been more and more improved The case study shows that the early warning of geological disasters with heavy precipitation on the same day will cause more hedging measures and the early warning of early precipitation will not attract enough attention. Model 3 has the greatest significance for the success of geological hazard avoidance.