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在CMIP5多种GCM模式和VIC模型基础上,结合水文指标法(IHA)和趋势分析法,研究了未来气候变化对黄河源区水文情势的影响。结果表明,黄河源区的年降水和年平均气温在未来时期(2036~2065、2070~2099年)总体上呈现显著增长趋势,各季气温增幅相当,然而降水季节变化存在较大差异,夏季降水较秋冬季节增长更为显著;黄河源区的汛期径流量呈增加趋势,剩余月份呈减小趋势,该趋势在冬季尤为显著;年极端最小径流有减小趋势,年极端最大径流有增加趋势,可能会对部分鱼类繁殖等产生影响,不利于水生生物的生存。
Based on CMIP5 multiple GCM models and VIC models, the impact of future climate change on the hydrological conditions in the source regions of the Yellow River has been studied based on the combination of hydrological indicator method (IHA) and trend analysis. The results show that annual precipitation and annual average temperature in the source region of the Yellow River show a trend of significant increase in the future (2036-2065 and 2070-2099), with a corresponding increase in temperature in each season, but there is a big difference in the seasonal variation of precipitation. Summer precipitation Which was more significant than that of the autumn and winter seasons. The flood season runoff in the Yellow River source area increased and the remaining months showed a decreasing trend, especially in winter. The annual minimum runoff decreased and the annual maximum runoff increased. It may affect the reproduction of some fish species and is not conducive to the survival of aquatic organisms.