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甄别供给与需求冲击在我国各次产业波动中的地位和作用,是有效制定宏观管理政策,特别是产业政策的重要前提条件。本文借鉴修正后的两变量SVAR模型对我国各次产业波动中的供求冲击进行了分析。结果发现,供给冲击比需求冲击在我国各次产业产出波动的形成中发挥着更为重要的作用,这在第二产业中体现得最为明显,其次是第三产业,最后是第一产业;在第一产业中,供给冲击对价格水平波动的影响更大,而在第二、第三产业中,需求冲击比供给冲击具有更高的相对方差贡献率。
Identifying the impact of supply and demand shocks in various industrial fluctuations in our country is an important precondition for effectively formulating macro-management policies, especially industrial policies. In this paper, the modified two-variable SVAR model is used to analyze the impact of supply and demand in various industry fluctuations in China. The result shows that the supply shock plays a more important role than the demand shock in the formation of the fluctuation of output of various industries in our country. This is most obvious in the secondary industry, followed by the tertiary industry and finally the primary industry. In the primary industry, supply shocks have a greater impact on price level fluctuations, while in the secondary and tertiary industries, demand shocks have a higher relative variance contribution rate than supply shocks.