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十年间全球金融市场跌宕起伏,在繁杂的变化中,我们看到了原油价格的迂回攀岩、黄金价格的直线上升、债券市场的推陈出新、衍生品市场的跳跃式发展。全球金融市场不同程度地受到了全球风险事件的影响。原油市场十年间整体呈现震荡攀升走势。2000年油价经过短暂下跌后,便在2001年欧佩克实行的“限产保价”政策下被提升,至此上涨趋势一发不可收拾。先是委内瑞拉石油工人罢工和紧张的伊拉克局势,随后墨西哥飓风,而后是接连发生的地缘政治危机和全球金融危机,不断将油价抛向新高。过去十年全球金融风险的存在,使得投资者不得不将较多的眼光放在有保值功能的黄金市场上,市场风险的跌宕孕育了金价走势的起伏。“9.11”恐怖袭击、安然丑闻及网络泡沫破灭打开了金价坚挺走势格局,伊拉克战争促使金价达到第一个历史高点,国际局势动荡使得金价再次刷新历史记录,而次贷危机的爆发则使得金价又收获了一个新高。债券市场的发展充分反映了金融市场的创新。传统的交易产品被多样的衍生品挤占,信用产品占据主要地位。投资者不再甘于收取固定收益,更多的套利交易腐蚀着投资者获得利润的大脑。国际债券市场俨然成为信用产品的天堂,信用衍生产品占据了主导地位。全球衍生品市场在过去十年呈现跳跃式发展。金融危机爆发前衍生品急剧膨胀,危机的爆发使其迅速萎缩,危机过后衍生品发展又有所恢复。金融自由化增强了场外衍生品的供给能力,经济和金融的全球化使得人们利用衍生品进行风险资产管理的需求大幅上升,场外交易越来越占据主导地位。美国和欧洲仍继续垄断全球衍生品市场,只是在危机前后对结构进行了适当的调整。过去的十年给予了我们很多的启示,未来十年市场又将发生怎样的变化……
During the ten years of ups and downs in global financial markets, we saw the roundabout climbing of crude oil prices, the straight-line rise of gold prices, the introduction of new bond markets and the leap-forward development of derivatives markets. The global financial markets are affected to varying degrees by global risk events. Crude oil market as a whole ten years showed a trend of rising shocks. After a brief drop in oil prices in 2000, it was promoted under the “limited-value-insured” policy implemented by OPEC in 2001, and the upward trend is out of control. First, the Venezuelan oil workers went on strike and the tension in Iraq followed by Mexico’s hurricane followed by successive geopolitical crises and the global financial crisis, pushing oil prices to new highs. The existence of global financial risks in the past ten years has forced investors to focus more on the gold market with the hedging function. The upswing in the market risk has brought about the ups and downs in the gold price movement. 9.11 "The terrorist attacks, the Enron scandal and the dot-com bubble burst opened the pattern of strong gold prices. The Iraq war prompted the price of gold to reach its first historic high. The turmoil in the international situation made the price of gold once again set a record. However, the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis Making gold has reaped a new high. The development of bond market fully reflects the innovation of financial markets. Traditional trading products are diversified by the diversion of derivatives, credit products dominate. Investors are no longer willing to charge a fixed income, and more carry trades erode the brains of investors for profit. International bond market has become a paradise for credit products, credit derivatives dominate. The global derivatives market has seen a jump in the past decade. The rapid expansion of derivatives before the financial crisis, the rapid collapse of the crisis so that the development of derivatives after the crisis has been restored. Financial liberalization has increased the supply of over-the-counter derivatives. The globalization of economy and finance has led to a sharp rise in demand for the use of derivatives for managing risky assets, and the over-the-counter transaction has become more dominant. The United States and Europe still continue to monopolize the global derivatives market, only to make appropriate adjustments to their structure before and after the crisis. The past ten years have given us a lot of enlightenment and what changes will the market take in the next ten years ...