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全球气候变暖加剧,干旱事件频发,对我国粮食生产供应造成了极大影响。为了应对干旱频发以及农业水资源短缺的现实问题,从虚拟水期权的角度来规避粮食安全与农业生产的风险,提出虚拟水期权并论证其规避粮食安全与农业生产风险的机理,构建了适合虚拟水产品特征的CIR-Jump扩散—跳跃模型,以小麦虚拟水期权为实证,采用马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗方法模拟出了其参数迭代方程,检验了参数方程的合理性,得出了小麦虚拟水期权的价格,说明扩散—跳跃模型完全适合虚拟水期权定价。借助金融工具及其衍生品以应对农业生产的气候变化风险,为粮食主产区保障粮食安全提供了新思路。
The global warming is aggravating and frequent drought events have a great impact on China’s grain production and supply. In order to cope with the reality of drought and agricultural water shortages, we should evade the risks of food security and agricultural production from the perspective of virtual water option, propose the virtual water option and demonstrate the mechanism of avoiding the risk of food security and agricultural production, The CIR-Jump diffusion-jump model of virtual aquatic products is empirically validated by using the virtual water option of wheat. The Markov-chain Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the parametric iteration equation and the reasonableness of the parametric equation is tested. The price of the virtual water option indicates that the diffusion-jump model is perfectly fit for virtual water option pricing. With financial instruments and their derivatives to deal with the risk of climate change in agricultural production, it provides new ideas for ensuring food security in major grain-producing areas.