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根据马斯格雷夫和罗斯托的经济发展阶段论以及我国人口经济社会发展战略,我国适度普惠型儿童福利制度的发展要经历三个阶段,分别是初级阶段(2010—2020年)、中级阶段(2021—2030年)和高级阶段(2031—2050年)。结合测算模型,依据每一阶段儿童规模、福利需求状况和福利标准,初步测算出三阶段的儿童福利支出规模。2020年时我国儿童福利支出估计为4 572亿元,约占GDP的0.58%;2030年时增加到14 756~16 315亿元,约占GDP的0.88%~0.97%,2050年时进一步增加到91 948~94 044亿元,约占GDP的2.67%~2.73%。2050年时我国儿童福利支出相当于OECD国家2009年的平均水平(2.6%)。为保障适度普惠型儿童福利制度发展,必须尽快出台《儿童福利法》,将儿童福利资金列入财政预算,明确儿童福利经费来源和保障机制,同时调整财政支出结构,增加儿童福利等公共福利支出规模。
According to the stage of economic development of Musgrave and Rostow and the strategy of China’s population economic and social development, the development of the moderately inclusive child welfare system in our country goes through three stages, namely the primary stage (2010-2020), the intermediate stage (2021-2030) and the high-level phase (2031-2050). Combined with the measurement model, according to the size of each child, welfare needs and welfare standards, preliminary estimates of the three-phase child welfare expenditure scale. Expenditure on child welfare in 2020 is estimated to be 472.2 billion yuan, or about 58.8% of GDP, and to 14756-16315 billion yuan in 2030, or about 0.88% -0.97% of GDP, and further to 2050 91 948 ~ 94 044 billion yuan, accounting for 2.67% of GDP ~ 2.73%. At 2050, the expenditure on child welfare in our country is equivalent to the average level of OECD countries in 2009 (2.6%). In order to protect the development of a moderately-inclusive child welfare system, the “Child Welfare Law” must be promulgated as soon as possible to include the funds for child welfare in the budget, to clarify the sources and mechanisms of child welfare funds, and to adjust public expenditure structures such as public expenditure on child welfare Expenditure scale.