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目的基于贝叶斯模型构建山区钉螺与感染性钉螺的时空分布模型,分析钉螺与感染性钉螺的时空格局变化,识别其在村级水平的时空分布规律。方法利用云南省洱源县2000-2006年的现场钉螺调查与实验室检测数据及村边界等空间数据,采用贝叶斯模型构建村级水平间的钉螺与感染性钉螺时空独立与交互模型,分析钉螺与感染性钉螺的时空格局变化,并识别其时空分布规律。结果钉螺分布时空交互模型和感染性钉螺时空独立模型的拟合优度稍强于其它模型。钉螺时空交互模型的空间相关系数的95%可信区间包括0;感染性钉螺时空独立模型的空间与时间相关系数分别为-0.63和0.28,但95%可信区间包括0,提示钉螺与感染性钉螺村级尺度的空间相关系数与时间相关系数均无统计学意义。结论研究区域的山区钉螺与感染性钉螺在村级间无显著性时空相关性,提示山区钉螺研究应开展更小尺度下的研究。
OBJECTIVE To construct a spatiotemporal distribution model of snails and infecting snails in mountainous area based on Bayesian model, analyze the spatial and temporal changes of snails and infecting snails, and identify their spatial and temporal distribution at the village level. Methods Based on the oncomelania snail survey and lab test data and village boundary data from 2000 to 2006 in Eryuan County, Yunnan Province, Bayesian model was used to construct the spatio - temporal independent and interactive model of snail and infectious snail at village level. The temporal and spatial pattern of snails and infectious snails changed, and their spatial and temporal distributions were identified. Results The goodness-of-fit of the time-space interaction model of snail distribution and the spatiotemporal independent model of infectious snail were slightly better than those of other models. The 95% confidence interval for the spatiotemporal interaction model of Oncomelania hupensis included 0; the space-time correlation coefficients of the infecting snail spatiotemporal independent model were -0.63 and 0.28, respectively, but the 95% confidence interval included 0, suggesting that snail and infectivity The spatial correlation coefficient and time correlation coefficient of the snail village scale were not statistically significant. Conclusion There is no significant spatial-temporal correlation between snail and infective snail in the study area in the study area, suggesting that the study on snail should be conducted in a smaller scale.