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我国三次产业、碳排放与经济发展之间的协调互动,对我国实现低碳绿色发展战略具有十分重要的现实意义。选取《中国统计年鉴》1980—2014年的三次产业、碳排放与经济发展的相关数据,采用“Lotka-Volterra”模型对三者之间的动态竞争关系进行深入研究,并借助生物学种间竞争分析方法,考察“三次产业—碳排放—GDP”之间的关系随时间的演变轨迹并进行预测。结果显示:我国三次产业、碳排放与经济发展三者之间主要存在捕食、共生、共栖、纯竞争四种竞争关系;中国的碳排放与经济发展具有直接的正向关系,并对三次产业增长都具有正向作用;在三次产业中,第三产业对整体产业结构优化具有一定的积极作用,并促进中国经济整体发展。若要实现低碳绿色发展,应改变传统的经济发展方式,注重三次产业结构的相互协调。
The coordination and interaction between the three industries, carbon emissions and economic development in our country have very important practical significance for our country to realize the strategy of low-carbon green development. The data of three industries, carbon emissions and economic development from 1980 to 2014 in China Statistical Yearbook were selected and the “Lotka-Volterra” model was used to study the dynamic competition among the three industries. Inter-competitive analysis method to examine the evolution of the relationship between the “three industries - carbon emissions-GDP” over time and forecast. The results show that there are mainly four competitive relations among the three industries, carbon emissions and economic development in China: predation, symbiosis, co-habitat and pure competition. China’s carbon emissions have a direct positive relationship with economic development and have a positive effect on the growth of three industries All have a positive effect; among the three industries, the tertiary industry has a certain positive effect on the overall industrial structure optimization and will promote the overall economic development of China. To achieve low-carbon green development, we should change the traditional mode of economic development and pay attention to the coordination of the three industrial structures.