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文章采用滑动平均马尔可夫模型预测降雨量,对公路建设和养护有重要价值。滑动平均马尔可夫模型是基于马尔可夫模型,先将数据滑动平均处理后再运用马尔可夫模型预测。文章以滇西的腾冲县和滇南的景洪县水文站30年的降雨资料为实例,对该方法进行了具体的应用。并与未做滑动平均处理的马尔可夫模型预测结果做了比较,其误差降低,精度提高。
The article uses the moving average Markov model to predict the rainfall, which is of great value to highway construction and maintenance. The moving average Markov model is based on the Markov model. The data are averaged and then processed using the Markov model. Taking the 30-year rainfall data of Tengchong County in western Yunnan Province and Jinghong County hydrological station in southern Yunnan as an example, the method is specifically applied. Compared with the results of Markov model without sliding average processing, the error is reduced and the precision is improved.