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本文应用频带分析方法和区制转移模型对2011年我国的经济景气、物价上涨压力及政策取向进行分析。研究结果表明,一致扩散指数相对于一致合成指数的平均先行期为5~6个月,两种指数均显示我国经济在2011年上半年持续小幅回落后,将于下半年开始重新步入上行轨道;物价变化可以明显地划分为“上涨压力大”和“上涨压力小”两种区制,2011年的物价上涨水平将会有所下降,全年物价上涨水平大致可以控制在3.03%左右;在投资和消费因素的推动下,2011年宏观经济将继续保持稳定增长。因此,需要合理把握宏观调控方向,以达到预期的宏观经济目标。
This paper analyzes the economic boom, rising price pressures and policy orientation of China in 2011 by using the method of band analysis and the transfer of district rules. The results show that the average lead time of the consistent diffusion index relative to the consensus composite index is 5 ~ 6 months. Both indexes show that the economy of our country will continue its upward trend in the second half of the year after its economy continues to slightly decline in the first half of 2011 ; Price changes can be clearly divided into “rising pressure ” and “rising pressure is small ” two kinds of system, the price rise in 2011 levels will decline, the price level of the year can be roughly controlled at 3.03 %; In the promotion of investment and consumption factors, in 2011 the macroeconomic will continue to maintain steady growth. Therefore, we need to properly grasp the direction of macroeconomic regulation and control in order to achieve the desired macroeconomic goals.