论文部分内容阅读
基于证据权法构建滑坡地质灾害评价模型,进行杭州市滑坡地质灾害危险性区划研究。主要数据源包括1930-2009年杭州市域采集到的1 905个地质灾害个例以及杭州市地质图、土地利用数据及数字高程模型(DEM)等。利用Arcgis空间分析及信息提取功能,筛选强降水、地层岩性、坡度、坡向、坡高、河网与道路缓冲等证据因子,并运用证据权法客观确定各因子权重,最后通过Arc-WofE扩展模块对多种优选因子的叠加,计算任意格网单元的滑坡发生概率,实现对潜在滑坡点位的空间预测。经分离样本法验证,区划准确率为88.3%,分析结果与现有滑坡的分布情况比较吻合。据此表明证据权法在多指标评价及其权重确定等方面具有普适性,值得在滑坡地质灾害危险性区划等方面推广应用。
Based on the right of evidence to establish landslide geological disaster evaluation model, landslide hazard hazard zoning research. The main data sources include 1,905 geological disasters collected in the Hangzhou area from 1930 to 2009 as well as Hangzhou geological map, land use data and digital elevation model (DEM). Arcgis spatial analysis and information extraction function were used to screen the evidence factors such as heavy precipitation, lithology, slope, aspect, slope height, river network and road buffer, and objectively determine the weight of each factor by the method of evidence. Finally, Expansion module for a variety of optimization factors superimposed to calculate the probability of landslides of any grid unit, to achieve the potential landslide spatial prediction. According to the sample separation method, the accuracy of zoning is 88.3%. The analysis result is in good agreement with the existing landslide distribution. Based on this, it is shown that the right of evidence law has universal applicability in multi-index evaluation and weight determination, which is worth popularizing and applying in the landslide geological hazard risk zoning.