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针对突发事件下应急服务所具有的订货提前期长,实施时间短,且残值极低的特点进行分析,将期权合约引入应急服务供应链,构建突发事件下应急服务供应链的期权协同决策模型。首先通过对应急服务集成商和供应商的收益优化分析,得到一定期权合约下集成商的最优订购策略。再通过最优期权合约参数建立应急服务供应链的协同机制,根据对整体应急服务供应链收益优化分析,指出期权合约下应急服务供应链的整体决策优于其单独决策。然后分析突发事件下供应商的成本和价格的变化导致集成商的需求和期权购买量变化的规律。最后通过具体算例分析,指出随着突发事件发生风险参数的增加,集成商会增加最优订购量而提高收益,且随着集成商准确充分地掌握突发事件发生信息,即可做出更为准确的决策。
In view of the short lead time, short implementation time and extremely low salvage value of the emergency services under emergencies, the option contracts are introduced into the emergency service supply chain and the option synergies of the emergency service supply chain under emergencies Decision model. First of all, we get the optimal ordering strategy of the integrator under a certain option contract through the income optimization analysis of emergency service integrators and suppliers. Then the synergetic mechanism of emergency service supply chain is established by the optimal option contract parameters. According to the optimization analysis of the overall emergency service supply chain, it is pointed out that the overall decision-making of emergency service supply chain under option contract is superior to that of individual decision-making. Then it analyzes the regularity of the change of the cost and the price of the suppliers under emergencies, which leads to the change of the demand of the integrators and the purchase of the options. Finally, through a specific example analysis, it is pointed out that as the risk parameters of emergencies increase, the integrators will increase the optimal order quantity and increase the profit, and as the integrator accurately and fully grasps the emergent information, For accurate decision-making.