对公交线路客运量的有效预测是制定线路运营计划、合理规划运营线路和优化公交运营调度的基础。通过分析线路车公里载客量的周期波动特征,提出以车公里载客量和公交车载客里程为关键影响因素,建立公交线路客运量预测模型。实验结果表明,该模型预测效果较好,相对误差低于15%,具有较强的实用性。 Effective prediction of passenger traffic on bus lines is the basis for formulating the line operation plan, reasonably planning the operation line and optimizing the bus operation schedule. Based on the analysis of the periodic fluctuation characteristics of the carrying capacity of line car in km, it is proposed that the bus passenger carrying capacity is established as the key influencing factor in passenger car mileage and passenger carrying distance. The experimental results show that the model has a good predictive effect, the relative error is less than 15%, and has strong practicability.