本文主要介绍了用于表层水温场趋势预报的几种方法:方差分析法、周期分析法和综合时间序列分析法,并用这些预报方法对东海及外缘海域、[Ⅰ,Ⅱ区]进行了水温场趋势预报试验,选出了预报海区表层海水温度场的各种显著周期。本文还给出了1982年的预报结果分析及方差分析法和周期分析法的拟合结果。分析得出预报海区海水温度场存在6～7年的长周期振动和2～3年的短周期振动,为表层海水温度场趋势预报提供了重要依据。 In this paper, several methods for the prediction of surface water temperature field are introduced: ANOVA, periodic analysis and integrated time series analysis. The water temperature of [I, II] Field trend forecast test, selected a variety of significant periods to predict the surface seawater temperature field in the sea area. This article also gives the 1982 forecast results and analysis of variance and periodic analysis of the fitting results. It is concluded that there are 6 ~ 7 years of long-period vibration and 2 to 3 years of short-period vibration in the forecast sea-water temperature field, which provides an important basis for the forecast of the temperature field in the surface seawater.