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本文基于规模报酬不变的生产函数,推导出技术进步核算方程——技术进步为投入要素边际产出增长的加权平均,并对中国省级数据进行实证分析,得到如下几点结论:(1)中国技术进步保持高速增长,劳动力技术进步为主要推动力,但“人口效率红利效应”正在逐步消失,资本技术进步缓慢。(2)1999年前,劳动力技术进步差距为东中部、东西部技术进步差距的主要原因,1999年后资本技术进步差距为主要原因。改革解放了劳动力,提高了劳动力效率,但在提高资本效率方面效果不佳。随着“人口效率红利效应”的逐步消失,如何长久而有效地促进资本技术进步,应是中国今后改革的着力点。
Based on the production function with constant returns to scale, this paper derives the weighted average of the incremental progress of the technological progress accounting-technological progress as the input growth of the input factors, and empirically analyzes the provincial data of China. The conclusions are as follows: (1) China’s technological progress has maintained its rapid growth and technological progress in labor force has been the main driving force. However, the “demographic dividend effect” is gradually disappearing and capital and technology progress are slow. (2) Prior to 1999, the gap between the technological advances in labor force was the main reason for the gap in technological progress between the eastern and eastern parts of the country and the gap in capital and technological progress after 1999, which was the main reason. The reform liberated the labor force and raised the labor efficiency, but it did not work well in enhancing capital efficiency. With the gradual disappearance of the “demographic dividend efficiency”, how long-term and effective capital technological progress should be advanced should be the focus of China’s future reforms.