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基于西部地区1993-2013年统计数据,构建物流网络化和区域工业化指标体系,采用主成分分析和计量模型分析法,对物流网络化与区域工业化的动态关系进行实证分析。研究发现:西部地区物流网络化与区域工业化之间存在长期均衡关系,但短期内会偏离这种均衡状态,偏离程度达85.12%;长期内物流基础设施网络化对区域工业化影响较大,弹性系数为0.6813,短期内物流组织网络化、物流基础设施网络化对区域工业化影响相当,弹性系数分别为0.582、0.5162。在滞后1-4期内,物流基础设施网络化均是引起区域工业化变化的格兰杰原因,滞后2、3期时,二者互为格兰杰因果关系;在滞后1、2期时,区域工业化是引起物流组织网络化变化的格兰杰原因,滞后4期时,二者互为格兰杰因果关系。
Based on the statistical data of the western region from 1993 to 2013, the index system of logistics network and regional industrialization is constructed. The principal component analysis and econometric model are used to analyze the dynamic relationship between logistics network and regional industrialization. The study finds that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between logistics networkization and industrialization in the west, but deviates from this equilibrium in the short term, with a deviation of 85.12%. In the long term, the networking of logistics infrastructure has a greater impact on regional industrialization. The elasticity coefficient Is 0.6813. In the short term, the logistics organization is networked and the logistics infrastructure network has a similar impact on the regional industrialization. The elasticity coefficients are 0.582 and 0.5162 respectively. In lag 1-4 period, the network infrastructure of logistics is the Granger cause of industrial change in the region. When the lagged period is 2,3 periods, the two are each Granger causality; in the lag phase 1 and 2, Regional industrialization is the Granger cause of the networked changes of logistics organizations. When lagging for four periods, the two are Granger causality.