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任何石油储量计算公式,都可以归结为一些地质参数与经验系数的乘积。而多数地质参数都是有一定取值范围的随机变量。随机变量间的运算要使用统计模拟法。本文以含有两个随机变量的氯仿沥青A法为例,对统计模拟法做了说明。统计模拟法基本分为三步:首先求每个随机变量的分布函数;其次用抽样法进行概率连乘,得到局部储量的分布函数;最后,将局部储量进行概率累加,得到总的储量分布函数。由于储量都是以分布函数形式给出,因而也就得到了不同置信水平下的石油储量。
Any formula for calculating oil reserves can be summed up as the product of some geological parameters and empirical coefficients. Most geological parameters are random variables with a certain range of values. The operation between random variables to use statistical simulation. In this paper, we take the chloroform A method with two random variables as an example to illustrate the statistical simulation method. Statistical simulation method is basically divided into three steps: First, find the distribution function of each random variable; followed by sampling the probability of multiplication, the distribution function of local reserves; Finally, the local reserves were probabilistically accumulated to get the total reserves distribution function . Since the reserves are all given as a distribution function, we get the oil reserves at different confidence levels.