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作者经 40多年的勘探实践 ,深感正确评价预测必须建立在正、反向思维的结合点上。只注意按烃源找气的简单正向思维而忽略天然气活动的一面 ,曾导致对浅层油气的迟钝和失误。由川西坳陷曲折的勘查经历和深刻反思 ,使我们逐步掌握了超致密化区气藏独特的规律 ,并在对我国主要油气区评价中较准确地预测了塔河古生界油田和鄂尔多斯C -P深盆气等。根据充分资料按常规用正向思维进行油气预测是必需的 ,思维度越深 ,评价预测功能越强。但直线型正向思维经常会碰壁 ,因为收集到的资料对深部油气仍然是零星断缺的 ,用正向思维连接起来 ,可能是某一角度的影象甚至假象。而用心解析、假设、反证、模拟 ,或用成功模式类比 ,多用反向思维方式 ,则更能逼近真实。
After more than 40 years of exploration, the author is deeply impressed that the correct evaluation and prediction must be based on the combination of positive and negative thinking. Only paying attention to the simple forward thinking of looking for gas by hydrocarbon source and neglecting the activity of natural gas has led to the sluggish and mistakes of shallow oil and gas. Due to the tortuous exploratory experience and deep introspection in the western Sichuan depression, we gradually grasped the unique laws of ultra-densified gas reservoirs and predicted more accurately the characteristics of the Tahe Paleozoic oilfield and Ordos C -P deep basin gas and so on. According to the sufficient data, it is necessary to forecast oil and gas according to the conventional theory. The deeper the thinking, the stronger the evaluation and forecasting function. However, the positive thinking of a straight line often hits the wall because the collected information is still fragmentary to the deep oil and gas. Connecting with a positive thinking may be an image or even an illusion of a certain angle. And intentions analysis, hypotheses, anti-card, simulation, or analogy with the success model, the more use of reverse thinking, the more realistic approximation.