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目的构建季节性动力学模型,拟合并预测新疆新发的急性人间布鲁氏菌病的流行趋势,提出有效控制布鲁氏菌病的决策依据。方法针对布鲁氏菌病的传播机理分析建立具有周期性传播率的动力学模型,拟合2010—2014年新疆新发的急性人间布鲁氏菌病数量并长期预测波动规律。改变模型参数对基本再生数R0的影响,可确定消除布鲁氏菌病的措施。结果SEIV模型较好的拟合新疆新发的急性人间布鲁氏菌病季节性波动规律,平均绝对百分比误差MAPE=20.379 4%,拟合累积新发病数量时MAPE=6.371 5%。模型预测2015—2019年疫病数量呈周期性上升,同时估计基本再生数R0=1.902 8,说明布鲁氏菌病尚不能被消除。参数敏感性分析确定有效策略为:减少羊/牛新出生数量;增大已感染布病羊/牛屠杀率;加强易感羊/牛疫苗接种率;降低疫苗丢失率。结论季节性动力学模型适用于拟合及预测新疆新发的急性人间布鲁氏菌病,具有较高可行性,同时为相关部门提供控制布鲁氏菌病的参考措施。
Objective To construct a seasonal dynamic model and fit and predict the epidemic trend of new human human brucellosis in Xinjiang and put forward the decision-making basis of effective control of brucellosis. Methods Based on the transmission mechanism of brucellosis, a kinetic model with periodic transmission rate was established and the number of newly diagnosed human brucellosis in Xinjiang from 2010 to 2014 was fitted and the long-term prediction of the fluctuation rule was carried out. Changing the influence of the model parameters on the basic reproductive number R0 can determine the measures to eliminate brucellosis. Results The SEIV model fitted well to the seasonal fluctuation of newly diagnosed human brucellosis in Xinjiang. The average absolute percentage error MAPE was 20.379 4%, and the MAPE was 6.371 5% when the new cumulative incidence was fitted. The model predicts a cyclical rise in the number of epidemics from 2015 to 2019, and an estimate of the basic reproductive number R0 = 1.902 8, indicating that brucellosis can not be eliminated yet. Parametric sensitivity analysis identified effective strategies as: reducing the number of new born sheep / cattle; increasing the rate of slaughter of infected sheep / cattle; increasing the susceptible sheep / cow vaccination rate; and reducing the rate of vaccine loss. Conclusions The seasonal dynamics model is suitable for fitting and predicting the new human acute brucellosis in Xinjiang. It is more feasible for the relevant departments to provide control measures for brucellosis.