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随着我国人口老龄化步伐的加快,社会基本养老保险和企业年金已不能充分满足全社会老年人的生活消费,建立第三支柱的个人储蓄性养老保险日趋必要。本文应用保险精算模型与收支回归分析方法,以上海市的相关数据为基础,测算了在实现既定养老保险目标替代率的条件下,实施个人税收递延型养老保险方案的税前扣除率与财政负担率。实证结果表明,要达到10%的养老保险目标替代率,税前扣除率应在20%左右,即对个人以工资额20%的部分购买个人储蓄性养老保险给予免税优惠;如果税前扣除率为20%,则税收减免总额约为16.70亿元,仅占上海市个人所得税收入的1.85%,占税收收入总额的0.15%,财政成本较小,因而具有实施的可行性。
With the acceleration of population aging in our country, the basic social endowment insurance and enterprise annuity have not been able to fully meet the living expenses of the elderly in the whole society. It is increasingly necessary to establish the third pillar of personal savings pension insurance. Based on the relevant data in Shanghai, this paper uses the insurance actuarial model and the income and expenditure regression analysis method to calculate the pre-tax deduction rate and the tax deduction rate of the personal tax-deferred pension scheme under the condition of achieving the target replacement rate of the established pension insurance. Financial burden rate. The empirical results show that in order to reach the 10% replacement rate of the endowment insurance target, the pre-tax deduction rate should be about 20%, that is, tax-free concessions should be given to individuals who purchase personal savings pension insurance with 20% of the wage. If the pre-tax deduction rate Is 20%, then the total amount of tax relief is about 1.67 billion yuan, accounting for only 1.85% of Shanghai’s personal income tax revenue, accounting for 0.15% of the total tax revenue, less financial costs, which has the feasibility of implementation.