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截至2015年年底,我国有20多家丁二烯生产企业,产能达到390.6万吨/年,同比2014年增长2.6%。目前丁二烯产能已经出现过剩,在国家去产能及供给侧改革的背景下,一些小装置将濒临淘汰。总之,未来丁二烯的供应能力将保持动态平衡,产能单边增长的模式将一去不返。近期原油价格持续下跌,创12年来历史新低,传统碳四抽提工艺成本较前期明显降低。若原油价格长期处于相对低位,原料轻质化带来的丁二烯产量减少这一利好也将不复存在,丁二烯市场后续发展仍将保持低速状态。
As of the end of 2015, there were more than 20 butadiene manufacturers in China with a capacity of 3,996,000 tons / year, an increase of 2.6% over 2014. At present, butadiene production capacity has emerged excess, in the country to capacity and supply-side reform in the context of some small devices will be on the verge of elimination. In short, the supply capacity of butadiene will maintain a dynamic equilibrium in the future, and the pattern of unilateral growth of production capacity will never return. Recent crude oil prices continued to decline, a record 12-year low, the traditional four carbon extraction process costs significantly lower than the previous month. If the price of crude oil is kept at a relatively low level for a long time, the positive impact of a decrease in the production of butadiene due to the light-weight of raw materials will cease to exist and the subsequent development of the butadiene market will remain at a low rate.