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在分析货物运输能源消耗与能耗强度、运输结构和货物周转量3因素关系的基础上,运用完全分解模型进行量化分析,测算了1990—2007年3个因素对货物运输能源消耗变动的影响效果。结果表明,货物运输量的增长是货物运输能源消耗增长的主要驱动力,同时运输结构中能耗强度较高的运输方式市场份额的增加加剧了这种增长的趋势,而技术进步带来的能耗强度的降低不足以抑制能源消耗的增加。货物运输能源消耗增长趋势不可避免,需要综合规划,促进交通运输业的可持续发展。
Based on the analysis of the relationship between energy consumption, energy consumption intensity, transportation structure and cargo turnover of freight transportation, a complete decomposition model was used to carry out quantitative analysis, and the effect of three factors on freight transportation energy consumption changes was measured from 1990 to 2007 . The results show that the increase of freight traffic is the main driving force for the energy consumption of freight transport and the increase of the market share of the transport modes with higher energy consumption intensity in transport structure aggravates this trend of increase. The reduction of consumption intensity is not enough to restrain the increase of energy consumption. The trend of energy consumption in transportation of goods is inevitable, which requires integrated planning to promote the sustainable development of the transportation industry.