【摘 要】
：
讨论可靠性评估中利用先验信息的问题.在参数先验分布容易确定的场合,可利用先验信息对参数的经典估计进行修正(即给出Bayes估计),再基于该估计用经典的WCF方法给出系统可靠
【机 构】
：
中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院应用数学研究所,中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院系统科学研究所
论文部分内容阅读
讨论可靠性评估中利用先验信息的问题.在参数先验分布容易确定的场合,可利用先验信息对参数的经典估计进行修正(即给出Bayes估计),再基于该估计用经典的WCF方法给出系统可靠度的置信下限.该方法具有很好的精度,并克服了纯Bayes方法受先验偏差影响较大的缺点.文章对上述进行了补充,讨论了指数定时截尾数据情形下利用先验信息的可靠性评定问题.给出了一种融合先验信息和试验数据的参数估计,该估计的特点是具有独立和的形式,基于该估计用WCF法比基于通常的Bayes估计简单.另外,对参数先验分布难以确定的多参数寿命分布模型(如Weibull分布,本文在仅知其可靠度先验分布或可靠度先验一阶、二阶矩及可靠度的某先验分位点的条件下(事实上工程专家较易给出上述可靠度的有关先验信息),将Bayes,Fiducial及经典统计方法相结合,用可靠度的先验信息直接对可靠度的经典限作修正以获得融合了先验信息及试验数据的置信下限,模拟表明该种处理具有很好的精度,适合工程应用.
其他文献
Actinomycin D (AMD) is an Received anticancer antibiotic that can bind selectively to both double-stranded and single-stranded DNA, and this binding greatly enh
The solution and computational aspects on nonlinear deflection of YongjiangRailway Bridge in Ningbo were investigated. An approximate iteration algorithm onnonl
The internal rotation potential energy curve around the glycosidic bond in 3′-azido-3′- deoxythymidine (AZT) molecule, an HIV-1 reverse transcriptase inhibito
The calculation of H + H2 system by symplectic quasiclassical trajectory (SQCT) shows that there are two types of collision trajectories A and B, i.e., type A t
A new organic-inorganic hetero-coordination polymer with three different kinds of ligands n is synthesized in the extremely mild condition. The X-ray diffractio
[AlO4Al12(OH)24(H2O)12]7+(Al13) formation in electrolysis process is studied. The results detected by 27Al NMR spectroscopy show that high content of Al13 polym
A way to extend operators in spaces of continuous functions to spaces ofcontinuous set-valued functions is proposed. This extension is developed through the Ste
对平均费用型马氏决策过程,研究了一种递阶增强型学习算法;并将算法应用于一个两台机器组成的开环可重入生产系统,计算机仿真结果表明,调度结果优于熟知的启发式调度策略.
On the basis of Part (Ⅰ) of this series some applications to the approximation ofset-valued functions are obtained: Korovkin type theorems, a method to extend