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1996年可谓之是令股民们振奋的一年,横冲直撞的股市在人气的操作下表现的沸沸扬扬,深沪股指从年初伊始就一路上扬.作为反映我国宏观经济发展的股票市场,经过了5年的风风雨雨,其整体趋势与宏观经济周期及相关的或放松或紧缩的货币政策有着越来越明显的内在联系.与此同时,不少证券分析家、投资专家都竞相挖掘信息预测股票的价格,分析市场的可操作方法,想通过对某种或某几种股票价格的合理预期,为众多股民指点迷径,以达到行为人效用最大化的目的.但是,股票价格能否预测?这似乎是一个没必要问的问题,却是一个值得我们深究的问题.笔者认为,作为一个理性发展的金融市场(包括股票市场),在充分考虑个人利益和市场有效的条件下,股票价格是不可预测的,股价就如同灰色的一个影子,变化多端,不可捉摸.
In 1996, it was a year in which the stock-marketrs were encouraged. The rampant stock market was uproar under the popular operation, and the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock indexes went up all the way from the beginning of the year. As a stock market reflecting China’s macroeconomic development, after 5 years The ups and downs, the overall trend and the macroeconomic cycle and related or relax or tighten monetary policy has an increasingly obvious internal relations.At the same time, many securities analysts, investment experts are racing to dig information to predict the price of the stock , Analysis of the market can be operated, want to pass a reasonable expectation of some or several stock prices, for many investors pointing the lost path in order to achieve the purpose of maximizing the utility of the perpetrator However, the stock price can be predicted? This seems Is a question that is not necessary to ask, but it is a question that deserves our deep study.In the author’s opinion, as a rational development of the financial market (including the stock market), the stock price is unpredictable with full consideration of personal interests and market conditions The price is just like a gray shadow, changing, unpredictable.