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基础设施会通过溢出效应对能源强度产生非线性影响,但尚缺乏相关的经验证据。本文运用处理非线性关系的面板平滑转换回归(PSTR)模型,对交通、能源和信息基础设施的上述溢出效应进行了实证分析,结果发现:(1)基础设施对能源强度确实具有非线性溢出效应并显著为负;(2)三类基础设施的上述溢出效应具有低影响和高影响两种状态,其大小最终会随基础设施规模的增加平滑的转向高影响状态,其中信息基础设施的高、低影响状态间有较大差异;(3)我国中西部地区基础设施的上述溢出效应目前仍处于低影响状态。建议加快信息基础设施建设和中西部地区的基础设施建设,以提升基础设施对能源强度的负向溢出效应,在保障经济增长的同时尽可能的降低能源强度。
Infrastructure will have a nonlinear effect on energy intensity through spillover effects, but there is no relevant empirical evidence. In this paper, we use the panel smoothing regression (PSTR) model to deal with the non-linear relationship to make an empirical analysis of the above spillover effects in transportation, energy and information infrastructure. The results show that: (1) Infrastructure does have a nonlinear spillover effect on energy intensity (2) The above three types of infrastructure spillover effects have two types of low impact and high impact. The size of these spillovers will eventually turn to high impact with the increase of infrastructure scale. Among them, the information infrastructure is high, (3) The above spillover effect of the infrastructure in the central and western regions of our country is still in a low-impact state. It is proposed to speed up the construction of information infrastructure and the infrastructure in the central and western regions so as to enhance the negative spillover effect of infrastructure on energy intensity and reduce the intensity of energy while ensuring economic growth.