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水庫設計运行的任务,在于根据国民經济部门在防洪兴利上的各种要求,設計水庫的参数及拟定調度計划,以达到合理地控制和利用河川径流的目的。因此河流径流情况的充分掌握,是做好設計和运行工作的重要前提。过去在水庫的設計和运行中,大多从研究径流多年变化的統計规律結合季节周期规律出发,郎利用所謂“統计預报”,而对径流时序变化的规律——即水文預报方面的研究利用不多。以径流随机过程理論为基础的条件概率預报,虽較前述統計預报有所发展,但仍属統計預报的范畴。由于对径流规律的反映和利用不够完善和充分,因此水庫参数的选择或沄行計划的拟定,均有一定的缺陷和局限性,甚至使设計和运行有一定的脫节。
The task of reservoir design and operation is to design the reservoir parameters and formulate the schedule according to various requirements of the national economic department on flood prevention and control in order to achieve the purpose of reasonable control and utilization of river runoff. Therefore, adequate control of river runoff is an important prerequisite for the design and operation. In the past, most of the design and operation of reservoirs proceeded from the study of the statistical laws of many years of runoff and the seasonal cycle, and Lang used the so-called “statistical forecast” to study the regularity of the change of runoff timing-that is, the study of hydrological forecast Not much use. Although the conditional probability forecast based on the theory of runoff stochastic process has developed compared with the above statistical forecast, it still falls into the category of statistical forecast. Because the reflection and utilization of runoff laws are not perfect and sufficient, the choice of reservoir parameters or the planning of planning have certain defects and limitations, and even make the design and operation have a certain degree of disjunction.