论文部分内容阅读
一年多来,吉林省经济发展经历了一个非常时期。经济波动的范围之广,幅度之大出乎人们意料。但尽管如此,从实际情况看,各方面对经济波动的感受并不象数字那样明显。这其中有两大因素发挥了社会稳定器的重要作用。一是农业、轻工业的稳步发展,保障了人民基本生活需要,从根本上稳定了社会情绪;二是能源、交通、原材料等基础工业持续增长,缓解了工业内部的供求矛盾,稳定了经济运行的基本秩序。因而虽然这次经济自身波动较大,但由此引起的社会震荡却转小。我们应当充分看到这一有利条件,审时度势,增强信心,战胜困难,使吉林省经济逐步走上稳定、协调发展的轨道。这是正确认识当前形势和进行对策选择的基本出发点。一、经济态势分析准确分析形势,是进行科学决策,摆脱困境的关键。(一)如何判断吉林省经济走势当前,吉林省经济的基本走势可以概述为:经济在低谷中已经走出最低时点,开始缓慢回升,但仍将处于不稳定的低速运行状态之中。从1989年6月至1990年5月12个月的工业生产情况分析看(见下图),去年7月经济增长速度陡然下降,进入低速增长期,12月出现负增长,今年1月份急速下滑到谷
In the past year or so, economic development in Jilin Province has experienced an extraordinary period. The wide range of economic fluctuations, the magnitude of the unexpected. Nonetheless, from the actual situation, all aspects of the feelings of economic fluctuations are not as obvious as the figures. Two of these factors have played an important role in social stability. First, the steady development of agriculture and light industry ensured the basic needs of the people and fundamentally stabilized social sentiment; second, the sustained growth of basic industries such as energy, transportation and raw materials eased the contradictions in supply and demand within industries and stabilized the economic operation Basic order. As a result, although this time the economy fluctuated greatly, the social turmoil it caused was even smaller. We should fully see this favorable condition, review the current situation, enhance our confidence and overcome the difficulties so that the economy of Jilin Province will gradually be on the path of stability and coordinated development. This is the basic starting point for a correct understanding of the current situation and the choice of countermeasures. I. Analysis of the Economic Situation Analyzing the situation accurately is the key to making scientific decisions and getting rid of the dilemma. (A) How to Judge the Economic Trend in Jilin Province At present, the basic trend of Jilin’s economy can be summarized as follows: The economy has already bottomed out the trough and started to pick up slowly, but will still be in a state of unstable low speed operation. Judging from the analysis of industrial production from June 1989 to May 1990 (as shown in the figure below), the rate of economic growth dropped abruptly in July last year, entering a period of slow growth and negative growth in December. It slipped sharply in January this year to Valley