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30多年来,中国经济高速增长,能源净进口急剧增加,能源原材料进口关税税率持续下调.为了研究中国能源进口政策,本文建立一般经济均衡模型进行深入细致分析.我们利用2010年国家统计数据,设定2010年为基准均衡,考察能源关税税率政策和能源净进口政策,调整能源关税税率或者调整能源净进口量对各产业生产产出、劳动力投入、资本投入、能源投入、总收入、社会福利等经济指标产生深远的影响甚至影响到各产业之间结构性调整.适当降低能源关税税率或者适当提高能源净进口一方面会引起国内第一产业和第二产业的劳动力投入、资本投入和能源投入(进而生产产出)向第三产业发生转移,促进第三产业的发展,有利于中国经济产业结构的调整;另一方面对收窄中国贸易顺差影响显著.最后我们利用CES形式的生产函数和效用函数进行敏感性分析,表明结果是稳健的.
Over the past 30 years, China’s economy has been growing at a rapid rate with a sharp increase in net import of energy and a continuous reduction of import tariffs on energy and raw materials. In order to study China’s energy import policy, this paper establishes a general economic equilibrium model for detailed and detailed analysis. Using the 2010 national statistics, Set 2010 as the benchmark balance, examine the energy tariff rate policy and the net import policy of energy, adjust the energy tariff rate or adjust the net import of energy to each industry output, labor input, capital investment, energy input, total income, social welfare, etc. Economic indicators have a far-reaching impact and even affect the structural adjustment between industries.Correctly lowering the energy tariff rate or properly increasing the net import of energy will cause the labor input, capital input and energy input of the primary and secondary industries in China And then the output of production) to the tertiary industry to promote the development of the tertiary industry, which is conducive to the adjustment of China’s economic structure; on the other hand, it has a significant impact on narrowing China’s trade surplus. Finally, we use the CES form of production function and utility Sensitivity analysis of the function shows that the result is robust .