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以和田河为研究对象,根据和田河流域1953-2014年径流数据,以及和田气象站的降水(0.1 mm)、气温、湿度(1%)同时段的数据,采用Mann-kendall突变检验、功率谱分析方法及模比系数差积法分析了和田河流域的气候和径流特征,同时采用标准化方法分析气候因子以及利用逐步回归分析法计算出每个气候因子对径流的影响系数,结果表明:和田河流域降水变化不显著,流域温度变化显著性高。降水变化的周期是5 a、突变年份是2001年,温度变化的周期是13 a、突变年份是1997年。和田河径流有波动上升的趋势,倾向率为0.3123,标准化之后变差系数是0.28,说明径流年际变化比较大且不稳定。计算气候因子对径流的相关性,得出温度对径流的相关系数最大,为0.437,建立回归方程,得出当和田河流域温度偏多或偏少2%时,和田河年径流量会偏多3.2%或偏少0.8%。气候变化对流域径流的影响主要是气温引起的。
Taking the Hetian River as the research object, Mann-Kendall mutation test and power spectrum were used to analyze the data of runoff from 1953 to 2014 in Hetian River Basin and the precipitation (0.1 mm) and temperature and humidity (1% Analysis method and analog-coefficient-coefficient difference plot method were used to analyze the climatic and runoff characteristics of the Hetian River Basin. At the same time, standardized factors were used to analyze the climatic factors and stepwise regression analysis was used to calculate the influence coefficient of each climatic factor on runoff. The results show that: The change of precipitation in the drainage basin is not significant, and the temperature change in the basin is remarkable. The period of precipitation change is 5 a, the year of mutation is 2001, the period of temperature change is 13 a and the year of mutation is 1997. The runoff of the Hetian River tended to fluctuate upward with a propensity rate of 0.3123. The coefficient of variation after standardization was 0.28, indicating that the runoff interannual variation was relatively large and unstable. The correlation coefficient between climatic factors and runoff was calculated. The correlation coefficient between temperature and runoff was the highest, which was 0.437. The regression equation was established. It was found that the annual runoff of Hotan River would be too high when the temperature was more or less than 2% 3.2% or less than 0.8%. The impact of climate change on watershed runoff is mainly caused by temperature.