论文部分内容阅读
本文选取2000~2016年大陆赴台游人数及台湾GDP等相关数据,采用向量自回归模型(VAR)、格兰杰(Granger)因果检验、脉冲响应、方差分解等方法来定量考察大陆居民赴台游人数与台湾经济增长之间的关系。结果表明:政策因素是大陆赴台游人数变化的决定因素,赴台游人数与台湾经济增长具有正相关关系。2016年台湾民进党执政以来,其分离分裂的大陆政策阻碍了大陆居民赴台游规模的扩大,导致台湾民众的利益受损。
In this paper, we choose the number of mainland tourists visiting Taiwan and the GDP of Taiwan from 2000 to 2016. We use quantitative autoregressive (VAR), Granger causality test, impulse response, variance decomposition and other methods to quantitatively study the number of mainland residents going to Taiwan The relationship between the number of tourists and Taiwan’s economic growth. The result shows that the policy factor is the decisive factor of the change of the number of mainland tourists visiting Taiwan. The number of tourists visiting Taiwan has a positive correlation with the economic growth of Taiwan. Since the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party came into power in 2016, its separatist mainland policy has hindered the expansion of the population of mainland residents going to Taiwan and the loss of the interests of the people in Taiwan.