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6月19日,中国人民银行发布消息,决定“进一步推进人民币汇率形成机制改革,增强人民币汇率弹性”。这是继2005年之后,中国推进人民币汇率形成机制改革的又一重要步骤,其积极效果值得期待。央行新闻发言人强调,“人民币汇率不进行一次性重估调整,当前不存在大幅波动和变化的基础”。这次汇改重在坚持以市场供求为基础,参考一篮子货币进行调节。继续按照已公布的外汇市场汇率浮动区间,对人民币汇率浮动进行动态管理和调节,保持人民币汇率在合理、均衡水平上的基本稳定,促进国际收支基本平衡,维护宏观经济和金融市场的稳定。近年,中国主要经贸伙伴呈现明显的多元化态势,资本往来也呈现多样化和多区域特征。央行认为,“在此背景下,人民币汇率如果盯住单一货币变化,不适应贸易投资货币多元化的需要,也不能反映汇率的实际水平”。 2008年国际金融危机期间,中国适当收窄了人民币波动幅度以应对危机。2008年7月至此次汇改前,人民币兑美元汇率中间价一直在6.82-6.84的窄幅区间内波动。最近两个月来,人民币实际有效汇率连续三个月环比攀升。中国于此时宣布进一步推进汇改,其意义何在,又将给中国及其贸易伙伴带来哪些影响?本刊特邀国内外部分金融机构的经济学家,对此作出解析。
On June 19, the People’s Bank of China released news that it decided to “further promote the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate.” This is another important step that China has taken in promoting the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism since 2005, and its positive results are worth the wait. Central Bank spokesman stressed that “RMB exchange rate without a one-time revaluation adjustment, there is no current volatility and change in the foundation ”. The exchange reform focused on insisting on market supply and demand as a foundation, with reference to a basket of currencies to be adjusted. We will continue to dynamically manage and adjust the exchange rate fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate according to published exchange rate fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. We will keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, promote the basic balance in the international payments and maintain the stability of the macroeconomy and financial markets. In recent years, China’s major economic and trade partners have shown a clear trend towards diversification. Capital transactions have also shown diversification and multi-regional characteristics. “In this context, the RMB exchange rate pegged to a single currency change does not meet the needs of trade and investment currency diversification, it can not reflect the actual exchange rate ”. During the international financial crisis in 2008, China appropriately narrowed the fluctuation of the RMB in response to the crisis. Before the exchange reform in July 2008, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar fluctuated within a narrow range of 6.82-6.84. In the recent two months, the real effective exchange rate of RMB has climbed for three consecutive months. At this moment, China announced the further promotion of exchange rate reform. What is the significance and the impact China will bring to China and its trading partners? This article has invited economists from some domestic and overseas financial institutions to make an analysis.