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本文应用马尔科夫随机模型估计从正常到ＥＢ病毒抗体阳性，再到鼻咽癌的转移概率。结果显示ＥＢ病毒抗体水平的波动较大，而多次随访检查能提高敏感度。模型参数检验也揭示ＥＢ病毒抗体的变化特征与鼻咽癌发生相关。鼻咽癌临床前期最大逗留时间为４．３６年，应用ＥＢ病毒抗体检测的敏感度达９９．９８％。这些结果为鼻咽癌筛查的效果评价提供了依据。
In this paper, the Markov randomized model was used to estimate the probability of metastasis from normal to Epstein-Barr virus antibody positive to nasopharyngeal carcinoma. The results showed that the level of Epstein-Barr virus antibody fluctuations, and multiple follow-up examination can improve the sensitivity. The test of model parameters also revealed that the variation of Epstein-Barr virus antibody was correlated with the occurrence of NPC. The maximum pre-clinical stay of nasopharyngeal carcinoma was 4.36 years, and the sensitivity of detection using Epstein-Barr virus was 99.98%. These results provide a basis for the evaluation of the efficacy of NPC screening.